Friday, October 30, 2009

Another data point in windfarm valuation

By now, you will have seen Centrica's announcement on the sales of 50% interests in windfarms at Lynn, Inner Dowsing (offshore) and Glens of Foudland (onshore).

The key section is here: Centrica also announced that it has agreed the sale of a 50 per cent equity stake in its Lynn, Inner Dowsing and Glens of Foudland wind farms to the US-based investment management company TCW for a cash consideration of £84 million, and entered into agreements to raise approximately £340 million of non-recourse project finance facilities from a consortium of banks for these assets. The transactions value the wind farms at approximately £460 million in aggregate.

Using a 10% discount rate, and what we think are reasonable electricity and ROC prices (£60/MWh and £37/MWh respectively), we see the values (100%) as:

Glens of Foudland (26MW) - £35 million
Lynn (81 MW) - £134 million
Inner Dowsing (81 MW) - £134 million
Lynn (extension, 90 MW)- £181 million
Inner Dowsing (extension, 90 MW) - £181 million

So we get a total of £675 million for 100% of the windfarms - a considerably higher number. We have to drop the power price to less than £40/MWh or increase the discount rate to around 15% to get the value to line up with Centrica's valuation.

Also, Centrica announced that the 270 MW of Lincs would cost some £725 million - £2.69 million per MW installed. Not bad - less than the equivalent (announced) amount for Greater Gabbard. I wonder if this suggests turbine prices are weakening somewhat?

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Novera in play

If you've got shares in Novera Energy you'll have noticed that they leapt by 32% this morning as the company announced that it had rejected an offer from largest shareholder Infinis to make an offer for the remaining shares at 62.5pence.

Using our Value of ROCs Model, we have valued Novera's assets, and applied a weighting of 100% to operational projects, 75% to projects under development, 25% to approved projects and 10% for projects in planning. We reach an asset value of around £312 million, and according to the last accounts, there is net debt of £112 million, making the net asset value £200 million or around £1.40 per share!

Even if Infinis is atttributing no value to the wind portfolio, the asset value of £244 million would justify a share price of more than 90p/share. We're holding on.